Barcelona and Real Madrid will take their place among Europe’s elite on Monday, December 16, as the draw for the UEFA Champions League round of 16 is made. However, both teams will be in different pots this time and there are some teams which they are more likely to draw in place of others.
As calculated by mathematician and analyst, Julien Guyon, Barcelona are most likely to face Chelsea in the UEFA Champions League round of 16. The two sides have a twenty-three point three per cent chance of meeting in the next round, which also happens to be the highest among all available possibilities.
Now official: here are the CORRECT #draw #probabilities for the round of 16 of the #ChampionsLeague based on 1M simulations of the official draw procedure (up to sampling error). Probabilities are quite evenly distributed this year. Barcelona-Chelsea most likely again! @OliverKay pic.twitter.com/wiqN64BKNv
— Julien Guyon (@julienguyon1977) December 11, 2019
Things get further complicated for Real Madrid, meanwhile, due to their second-place finish in Group A. Los Blancos are now facing nightmare ties against English pair Manchester City and Liverpool. Bayern Munich, RB Leipzig, and Juventus also remain a possibility for the thirteen-time winners albeit by a lesser percentage.
Like their neighbours, Atletico Madrid also have the highest chance of drawing either Manchester City or Liverpool. Group H winners, Valencia, meanwhile, are likeliest to face Tottenham Hotspur after the latter finished second in their gr0up.
The draw will be made on Monday, December 16, 2019, and the ties will be played during February and March.